|A silly little project
||[Nov. 5th, 2004|03:45 am]
This is for all the people who were wondering, "How could they have done this to us?" This is how:
No, I didn't pull this all out of my ass. Only some of it. I have fit this Venn diagram to all of the relevant facts I had available, and have employed a patchwork of axiomatic guesses and rules to the immeasurable quantities, designing said rules to fit such data as I could find (for example, nationwide voting rates and exit poll statistics). A further disclaimer: What you infer from this graph may not be deliberately implied.
As an example of both of the above, I make no claim that there is a direct causal relationship between being stupid and voting for Bush. I started with the basic assumption that half of all people are stupid. I made half of the stupid people Democrats by default, and half of them Republicans. I then accounted for the effect of the Republican party's loudly and frequently repeated lies, which, upon reaching 70% of the general population in significant levels, would have an 80% chance of swaying those stupid people who are reached.
See, I'm fair. Speaking of which, don't worry, Dems! I'll make one for you next. (Maybe next week; I have a delightfully busy weekend ahead.)
You don't really want to know how I came up with these numbers, do you?
Oh. You do. Well then, here's how I derived this stuff:
Assume that 50% of the population is stupid.
(Yes, that is far more generous than I usually am.)
Assume that any given person has an equal starting chance to be inclined to vote Democrat and to be inclined to vote Republican, with no good reason to choose one or the other.
Assume that 70% of the entire population is subjected to a significant level of loudly and frequently repeated Republican lies.
Assume that stupidity gives one an 80% chance of being brainwashed by these lies.
Assume further that non-stupidity gives a 50% chance that one will think for, and perhaps even educate, one's self to a degree which is sufficient to vote Democratic despite one's original projected (50%) inclination.
Assume that non-stupidity without significant independent thought (as above) gives one a basic 75% chance to resist brainwashing, but that non-stupidity plus the capacity for independent thought gives a 90% chance to not be brainwashed.
Assume that 40.8% of most people bother to go vote, but that 81.6% of independent thinkers motivate themselves to vote. These figures were chosen to satisfy the 51% turnout rate of this election, to sound vaguely realistic (to my uneducated ear), and to yield voter proportions that are very easy to work with: 40% stupid, 40% independent thinkers, 20% in the middle. (Voter suppression tactics were mostly used against Democrats, and hence are irrelevant to this breakdown of Republican voting reasons. Therefore I will not include them here.)
Assume that practically all people who are successfully brainwashed vote for Bush. This overrides both non-stupidity and independent thought (because those are accounted for earlier, as resisting the success of brainwashing).
22% of those polled this year listed "morals" as the most important factor in their vote. But the only numbers regarding how many listed it as a factor at all (not just the most important one) that I have seen show that roughly four times as many people voting for Bush as those voting for Kerry considered "morals" important. When Republicans talk about "morals" in a partisan sense, they are almost uniformly using the word to describe thinly veiled religious and/or anti-gay bigotry. In 2000, about 60% of Americans in a nationwide poll were against gay marriage, and 34% said they would refuse to vote for a candidate who disagreed with them on the subject. I found no indication of the proportional representation of that 34% in the "pro" and "anti" camps, but the 4:1 ratio on "morals" from 2004 is probably an very close measure of this. 80% of 34% of 60% tells us that just over 16% of voters (33% of Bush supporters) would have voted for Bush by virtue of bigotry, all other factors aside.
I calculate bigotry as being linked with stupidity. Not out of a belief that stupid people are more likely to be bigoted, but because I view bigotry (the kind that overrides actual relevant evidence in decision making) as a form of stupidity. Without the possibility of gathering evidence for numerical correlation on this front, I will simply make an exponential scale: Stupid people are twice as likely to be bigoted as moderately intelligent people, who are themselves twice as likely as independent thinkers to be strongly bigoted.
The "Fraud" circle represents Kerry votes, illegally changed by electronic voting machines into Bush votes. As I have no hard figures on this, only a clue left by madmanatw in this comment, I do not know how many states were affected. 3.7% seems like a fair, conservative estimate (so to speak). It also rounds the total off to 100%. *wink*
Edit: Here's an early source regarding electronic vote counting fraud in this election.
The "Why not?" circle represents people of average intelligence who started Republican and who have been given no compelling reason to favor either side. They have neither fallen victim to Bush's lies nor learned enough to turn from him. They continue to vote Republican from inertia and from a continuing sense of Republican identity.
I chose several of the seemingly arbitrary rules with an eye toward finishing the calculations with (roughly) the correct proportions of Bush voters, Kerry voters, non-voters, and people who still think that there were WMD's in Iraq. (Subtract out the fraudulent votes, and my graph has three-fourths of Bush voters believing that, just as in real life!)
The math was a bit of a nightmare. Maybe not so much a nightmare as just one of those dreams where you think you're at work all day. And then you wake up and have to go to work. However, getting the proportions in the diagram correct was just the right puzzle to keep me entertained!
Oh, no flames or trolls, please. (Not that I have had that problem yet. It's good to not have readers!)